Tariff Ruling Tried (And Failed) to Steal The Show If you were told ahead of time that Friday morning would bring news that the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs, you wouldn't be crazy to think it would be the week's biggest news and a big potential source of volatility for bonds. But reality wasn't quite as dramatic. It's true that the tariff ruling garnered the week's highest volume as well as some elevated directional volatility, but in outright terms, it was less than 3bps in 10yr yields and about half of that was recovered as the day progressed. Reasons and implications are discussed in greater detail in today's recap video.
Econ Data / Events Core PCE (m/m) (Dec) 0.4% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.2% prev Core PCE (y/y) (Dec) 3.0% vs 2.9% f'cast, 2.8% prev Core PCE Prices QoQQ4 2.7% vs 2.6% f'cast, 2.9% prev GDPQ4 1.4% vs 3% f'cast, 4.4% prev GDP Final SalesQ4 1.2% vs - f'cast, 4.5% prev PCE (y/y) (Dec) 2.9% vs 2.8% f'cast, 2.8% prev PCE prices (m/m) (Dec) 0.4% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.2% prev PCE Prices (Q/Q)Q4 2.9% vs 2.8% f'cast, 2.8% prev Market Movement Recap 08:49 AM Slightly stronger overnight and a tiny bit of push-back after data. MBS unchanged and 10yr down 1bp at 4.066 10:13 AM Weaker after SCOTUS ruling on tariffs. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2bps at 4.097 04:30 PM More than reasonably resilient in the PM hours. MBS now unchanged and 10yr up only 1bp at 4.085.
