Weaker Data Endorses the In-Progress Rally

Weaker Data Endorses the In-Progress Rally Who knows how today would have ended up if the relevant econ data had come in stronger than expected. Perhaps that would have been enough to see an earlier, more threatening sell-off in bonds. As it stands, we're heading out the door with moderate gains, even if we can't give clear credit to the data (because the gains happened before the data). Thursday brings another chance to see if different data (Jobless Claims, Challenger Layoffs, Revelio payrolls) will be worth any more of a response. Otherwise bonds are just grinding out a range ahead of next Wednesday's Fed Day.  Econ Data / Events ADP Employment -32k vs 10k f'cast, 42k prev ISM Biz Activity (Nov) 54.5 vs -- f'cast, 54.3 prev ISM Services PM I (Nov) 52.6 vs 52.1 f'cast, 52.4 prev ISM Services Employment (Nov) 48.9 vs -- f'cast, 48.2 prev ISM Services New Orders (Nov) 52.9 vs -- f'cast, 56.2 prev ISM Services Prices (Nov) 65.4 vs -- f'cast, 70.0 prev Market Movement Recap 08:37 AM 10yr down 3bps at 4.06 and MBS up more than an eighth of a point even before the ADP data. Little-changed since then.  10:02 AM No major reaction to ISM data.  MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 2.2bps at 4.069 10:38 AM Session lows with MBS down 5 ticks (.16) from AM highs (still up on the day, barely).  10yr down less than 1bp now and up more than 3bps from the lows at 4.084 12:43 PM bouncing back a bit.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.3bps at 4.068 03:59 PM MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.1bps at 4.06