Hey y’all! We’re the Jorgenson Group, your neighborhood real estate team, and the number-one question buzzing around Central Texas is: “When will the Austin real estate market recover?” Well, slip into your favorite flip-flops, and let’s unpack the forecast—sunshine and sass included.
First off, experts say the road back to peak prices is more marathon than sprint. Based on Austin’s long-term average appreciation rate of about 4.981% annually, the median home—currently at around $450,000—is projected to hit the previous high of approximately $551,386 by August 2029. That’s a recovery timeline of around 52 months from June 2025. (Source: Team Price) Fancy math, but basically: patience pays off.
1. Slow and Steady Wins This Race
The market isn’t bouncing back overnight. May 2025 saw active listings surge 21%, inventory tick up to 5.65 months, and the New Listing–Pending ratio slump to 0.53—meaning nearly twice as many homes are sitting unsold. It’s not a market stall—it’s just catching its breath. (Source: Team Price Forecast, May 2025)
2. A Buyer’s Market with a Comeback Curve
Austin officially joined the buyer’s market club in mid-2025 with 7.7 months of supply—enough to rival the buyer perks in places like Miami and Orlando. Sellers, take notes: listing your home is no longer like throwing confetti—you’ve gotta work the room with smart pricing and standout marketing. (Source: New York Post via Realtor.com)
3. Development & Infrastructure Fuel the Renewal
The Austin comeback isn’t just about numbers. Massive projects like the $1.6 billion expansion of the Austin Convention Center—and tens of thousands of new apartments—are injecting life and long-term demand into the city. Recovery isn’t hope—it’s structural. (Source: RentCafe via MySanAntonio)
4. Rents & Affordability—A Piece of the Puzzle
Let’s talk rent: median asking rents have plunged 10.7% year-over-year to about $1,420 as of March 2025. Cooling rents ease competition for buyers and suggest affordability is bubbling back—kind of like safe margaritas after years of heat. (Source: Axios/Redfin)
5. The Forecast: Calmer, Smarter, Steady
So, when will Austin’s real estate market feel normal again? Think mid-to-late 2029, based on the historic appreciation track—and that’s assuming no wild curveballs like rate shocks or sudden demand surges. It’s a slow simmer, not a sudden sizzle.
The Jorgenson Group Takeaway
Here’s the bottom line: Austin’s recovery is on its own Austin time—steady, smart, and fueled by fundamentals. Buyers, you’ve got options and wiggle room. Sellers, shine up those homes and price them right. Recovery isn’t just round the corner—it’s built into the foundation of this city’s future.
Interested in getting hyper-local about your neighborhood’s timeline—or want help strategizing where to buy or list next? We’ve got the data, the sass, and the heart to help you navigate.
